Technical View

As we mentioned in our previous update last month, the RM124/tonne “Downside Gap” created on 23 Feb 2010 had violated the CPO market’s near-term solid uptrend. The violation was also

confirmed with another RM59/tonne retracement in the subsequent trading day. That means that the uptrend which started since the mid-term downtrend line was violated in October last year has come to an end.

In view of the possibility that the CPO market could be in the midst of creating a major lower high, it also looks like the market could be starting to create a new downtrend channel. Anyhow, whether the market is creating a downtrend channel or not will not alter our bearish view towards the near-term market. We had previously shifted our view to bearish after the solid uptrend was violated. It was our first shift of view since October last year.

We have identified a few support levels which the market may be testing in the coming months. First support is seen at the RM3,336/tonne level, followed by the RM3,103/tonne level and the 3,000/tonne psychological mark. To the upside, there is immediate resistance at the RM3,514-RM3,669 / tonne area, which is represented by the massive “Downside Gap”. Next resistance is seen at the RM3,815-RM3,933/tonne area.

Market Review

Cautious mode. Share prices on Bursa Malaysia ended easier yesterday, with most indices slipping into negative territory in line with other regional markets. The FBM KLCI fell 6.78 pts to 1,516.91, dragged down by losses in heavyweights MISC and BAT. Turnover shrank to 1.09bn shares, with losers leading gainers 483 to 253 while 280 counters were unchanged. Among the key market news today are Ahmad Zaki wins a RM145m job, Alam Maritim’s unit bags a RM11m deal, KL Kepong drops plan to issue USD300m bonds, Selangor Dredging arm buys London property for RM48.4m, Hong Leong gets nod for USD300m bonds, Singapore’s Straits Trading seeks secondary listing in Malaysia, and Naza TTDI plans 18 new launches this year. Overnight, the DJIA plunged 228.48 pts to finish under the 12,000-mark as US jobless claims rose, China’s export growth slowed and Spain’s credit rating was cut. Therefore, we expect negative sentiment to dog the region’s bourses today.

Bursa rendah seiring pasaran serantau

KUALA LUMPUR 10 Mac - Harga-harga saham di Bursa Malaysia ditutup rendah hari ini dengan kebanyakan indek susut ke wilayah negatif, selari dengan pasaran lain di peringkat serantau.

Pelabur mengambil sikap berhati-hati berikutan pasaran serantau turun selepas data perdagangan China yang lemah, menjejaskan mereka, kata seorang peniaga.

Pada 5 petang, petunjuk pasaran FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) turun 6.78 mata atau 0.45 peratus kepada 1,516.91, diseret turun oleh kerugian dalam kaunter-kaunter berwajaran tinggi terpilih seperti MISC dan BAT.

Pada pembukaan, FBM KLCI turun 0.84 mata kepada 1,522.85 sebelum bergerak antara 1,515.32 dan 1,524.12.Peniaga itu berkata aktiviti pengambilan untung terus menyekat keuntungan yang direkodkan sejak dua hari lepas.

Krisis Timur Tengah yang melonjakkan harga minyak, selain keraguan mengenai sama ada permintaan tembaga akan terus meningkat, membayangi sentimen dagangan, katanya.

Indeks Kewangan susut 29.75 mata kepada 13,720.58, Indeks Perladangan turun 22.54 mata kepada 7,722.52 dan Indeks Perusahaan susut 31.95 mata kepada 2,797.68.

Indeks Emas FTSE Bursa Malaysia turun 40.16 mata kepada 10,374.21, Indeks Ace FTSE Bursa Malaysia turun 31.48 mata kepada 4,117.21 dan Indeks FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mid 70 susut 9.02 mata kepada 11,047.65.

Jumlah dagangan berkurangan kepada 1.09 bilion saham bernilai RM1.56 bilion berbanding 1.50 bilion saham bernilai RM2.24 bilion semalam dengan kaunter rugi mengatasi kaunter untung sebanyak 483 berbanding 253 manakala 280 kaunter tidak berubah.

Saham-saham berharga rendah mengetuai kaunter aktif antaranya SAAG Consolidated susut setengah sen kepada 9.5 sen, Sumatec-WA menokok 17 sen kepada 17.5 sen, Petronas Dagangan-CB menambah 3.5 sen kepada 18.5 sen dan Borneo Oil-WB meningkat 5.5 sen kepada 39.5 sen.

Antara saham mewah, Maybank rugi satu sen kepada RM8.80, CIMB turun tiga sen kepada RM8.12, Sime Darby susut dua sen kepada RM9.10 manakala Petronas Chemicals menokok dua sen kepada RM6.72.

Jumlah dagangan di Pasaran Utama berkurangan kepada 885.97 juta saham bernilai RM1.525 bilion berbanding 1.182 bilion saham bernilai RM2.19 bilion semalam.

Waran susut kepada 148.220 juta unit bernilai RM27.35 juta berbanding 205.512 juta unit bernilai RM40.547 juta sebelumnya.Jumlah dagangan di Pasaran ACE susut kepada 53.932 juta saham bernilai RM6.146 juta berbanding 104.282 juta saham bernilai RM13.154 juta yang direkodkan semalam.- Bernama

Technical View

The technical outlook of the FBM KLCI has been favorable since the market violated the downtrend line with a 15.73-pt gain. The index continued to trade steadily since the breakout, which wrote off the possibility of the index creating a downtrend channel. Thus far, the index is developing as we haveexpected after confirming the “Long Lower Shadow Line” and violating the downtrend line.

Looking at the market action since last Friday’s strong gains, we think the index would soon be able to surpass last Friday’s intra-day high of 1,529 pts. Hence, it could be yet another round of brief downdraft after the market experienced the third major breakdown (violation of the more than 6-month old uptrend) since March 2009. The two previous major breakdowns - in January and May 2010 - also did not see the index pull back a lot more subsequently. From here, the index may start to trend sideways, or even resume its uptrend. We shifted our near-term view from neutral back to bullish on Monday.

Immediate resistance is still seen at the 1,524-1,536-pt area, followed by a tougher resistance at the 1,544 pt-level. To the downside, immediate support lies at the huge upside gap ranging from the 1,506 pt-level to the 1,519 pt-level created last Friday. The 1,500-psychological mark would represent the next support for the market.

Market Review

Broad rise. After 2 days of consolidation, the FBM KLCI moved 6 points higher yesterday to end at 1523.69 points. This was encouraged by a 124-point overnight gain on the Dow. Gainers overwhelmed losers by 575 to 211. Today’s corporate headlines include Focus Point entering into a MOU with Permodalan Nasional to develop a Focus Point franchise program, while Bank Negara will look into the merits of allowing larger foreign ownership in local banks on a case-to-case basis. The Dow closed flat last night while European bourses were down about half a percent, while crude oil closed at USD104.35 per barrel, down by USD0.67. As all these will likely have little bearing on today's market sentiment, the local bourse will likely maintain its upward trajectory from yesterday.

Bursa kukuh di akhir dagangan

KUALA LUMPUR 9 Mac - Harga-harga saham di Bursa Malaysia ditutup kukuh hari ini dengan minat pelabur kekal fokus kepada sektor-sektor berkaitan inisiatif Program Transformasi Ekonomi (ETP), khususnya perladangan, minyak dan gas, kata para peniaga.

Pada pukul 5 petang, petunjuk pasaran Indeks Komposit FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) meningkat 6.03 mata atau 0.40 peratus kepada 1,523.69.Pada pembukaan, FBM KLCI dibuka 1.52 mata lebih tinggi kepada 1,519.18.Selepas itu, ia bergerak antara 1,519.18 dan 1,525.69.

Para peniaga berkata sentimen pasaran begitu positif, dirangsang oleh perkembangan korporat yang menggalakkan dan tinjauan meyakinkan terhadap pelaburan sementara prestasi semalaman Wall Street memberikan kekuatan tambahan.

Pada Selasa, Perdana Menteri Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak mengumumkan sembilan projek baharu di bawah ETP yang akan menarik pelaburan berjumlah sehingga RM2.268 bilion, termasuk simpanan dan menjana RM11.71 bilion pendapatan negara kasar (GNI) menjelang 2020.

Trend menaik bursa tempatan juga seiring dengan pasaran saham serantau lain yang diniagakan tinggi, didorong oleh kejatuhan harga minyak.

Indeks Kewangan melonjak 114.72 mata kepada 13,750.33, Indeks Perladangan meningkat 3.35 mata kepada 7,745.06 dan Indeks Perindustrian menambah 0.03 mata kepada 2,829.63.

Indeks Emas FTSE Bursa Malaysia meningkat 65.82 mata kepada 10,414.37, Indeks ACE FTSE Bursa Malaysia mengukuh 17.10 mata kepada 4,148.69 dan Indeks Mid 70 FTSE Bursa Malaysia menambah 150.31 mata kepada 11,056.67.

Jumlah dagangan mengukuh kepada 1.50 bilion saham bernilai RM2.24 bilion daripada 1.17 bilion saham bernilai RM1.75 bilion semalam dengan saham untung mengatasi saham rugi dengan 575 berbalas 211 sementara 267 kaunter tidak berubah.

Di kalangan kaunter saham mewah, CIMB naik 14 sen kepada RM8.15, AMMB mengukuh 16 sen kepada RM6.46, Sime Darby menambah dua sen kepada RM9.12, Tenaga tidak berubah pada RM6.30 sementara Genting kerugian enam sen kepada RM10.32.

Jumlah dagangan di Pasaran Utama naik kepada 1.182 bilion saham bernilai RM2.19 bilion daripada 920.570 juta saham bernilai RM1.71 bilion semalam.

Waran-waran menokok kepada 205.512 juta unit bernilai RM40.547 juta daripada 140.197 juta unit bernilai RM25.514 juta.Jumlah dagangan di pasaran ACE menambah kepada 104.282 juta saham bernilai RM13.154 juta daripada 102.541 juta saham bernilai RM13.581 juta. - Bernama

Market Review

Bargain hunting. The FBM KLCI inched up 1.92 points to close at 1,517.66 on the back of a slight uptick in key heavyweights such as Petronas Chemical, Genting, Maybank and CIMB. Today’s corporate news include the Government announcing 9 new ETP projects involving the oil & gas, renewable energy, healthcare, tourism, agriculture and electronics sectors, McKinsey & Co has been appointed consultants to carry out the value management study on the MRT, Cypark Resources is investing RM94m to build a renewable energy park in Nilai and Heveaboard has received an offer of RM245m to acquire its assets relating to the manufacture of particleboards from Dongwha Malaysia Holdings Bhd. We expect sentiment on our local market to follow suit from Wall Street’s overnight gain of 124 points.