MARKET REVIEW - 25 February 2011

Key index falls below 1,500. The FBM KLCI fell further to close at 1,489.87, or 21.24 pts lower, in tandem with a negative Wall Street finish as well as news of local inflation pressure. Among the key market news are sources said motor insurance is to cost more, Proton and Perodua have been asked to prepare their roadmaps on how they plan to be competitive, Tanjung Offshore won a RM33.5mn contract extension to provide three offshore support vessels and EONCap’s CEO resigns. Overnight, most American stocks rose and oil retreated to below USD100 a barrel after the US, Saudi Arabia and International Energy Agency said they could offset any supply disruptions from Libya. However, the DJIA still fell 37.28 pts to close at 12,068.5. As such, we expect the market may continue to consolidate pending fresh leads.

TECHNICAL REVIEW - 25 February 2011

After seeing Tuesday’s RM124 / tonne “Downside Gap” which was confirmed by yesterday’s RM / tonne sell-off, we can comfortably say that the uptrend which started since the mid-term downtrend line was violated in October last year has come to an end.

On Tuesday, as CPO prices gapped down at the opening, the market violated a rather crucial horizontal support floor at the RM3,611 / tonne level. Not only that, the “Downside Gap” also confirmed last Friday’s violation of the uptrend line which had previously supported the CPO market’s rising trend for about 6 months. And the yesterday’s sell-off confirms this “Downside Gap”.

The near-term technical outlook of the CPO market has shifted from bullish to bearish. This is the first time that we are shifting our view towards the near-term market since October last year.

We have identified a few support levels which the market may be testing in the coming months. First support is seen at the RM3,336 / tonne level, followed by the RM3,103 / tonne level and the 3,000 / tonne psychological mark. To the upside, there is immediate resistance at the RM3,045-RM3,669 / tonne area, which is represented by the “Downside Gap” created on Tuesday. Next resistance is seen at the RM3,815-RM3,933 / tonne area.

TECHNICAL REVIEW - 24 February 2011

Over the last three trading days, the index had swung drastically in both directions – at least 10 pts or so from the day-low to the day-high. And over the last two sessions, the index gapped down by more than 5 pts at the opening. Every single early pullback experienced by the market over the last three sessions was followed by concerted effort to bounce back above the flat line. Nevertheless, the index still ended lower over the last two sessions.

Technically, what we can depict from the market action over the last three days is that the market is in a state of confusion. Those with a bearish bent expect further weakness ahead as the index had already violated the uptrend line which had previously supported its uptrend for more than 6 months. Moreover, it still looks like the index could be creating a potential downtrend channel. On the other hand, there are many bargain hunters who like to accumulate shares on seeing the FBM KLCI drop by more than 10 pts.

Our view remains the same - that as long as the market remains stuck within the potential downtrend channel that we have drawn, this means there is still a possibility that the index may be forming a downtrend channel, especially since it has already created a lower high and lower low.

While watching if the index is in the midst of creating of a downtrend channel, we are sticking to our Neutral view. Do not forget that the index is now trading at below the uptrend line.

From the current level, there is still immediate support at the 1,505 pt-level, followed by the 1,500 ptpsychological level. To the upside, there is initial resistance at the 1,524-1,536-pt area.

Saham murah pulihkan Bursa Malaysia

KUALA LUMPUR 23 Feb - Harga saham di Bursa Malaysia, yang dicatatkan rendah pada sesi awal, melantun semula untuk ditutup bercampur-campur berikutan aktiviti mencari saham murah, kata para peniaga. Indeks utama, yang dibuka pada paras 1,504.26 pagi ini, mencecah paras tertinggi harian 1,516.52 pada jam 3.56 petang selepas mencatatkan turun naik.

Pada jam 5 petang, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) turun 2.52 mata atau 0.17 peratus kepada 1,511.11, di mana kaunter untung mengatasi kaunter rugi sebanyak 433 kepada 386, manakala 274 kaunter tidak berubah.

Seorang penganalisis syarikat pembrokeran berkata kejutan yang baik mengenai laporan pendapatan syarikat berwajaran tinggi telah menutup kejatuhan harga semalaman di Wall Street dan kegelisahan mengenai kegawatan politik di Asia Barat.

Indeks Kewangan turun 6.02 mata kepada 13,700.49 dengan harga saham pemberi pembiayaan utama, Maybank, meningkat semula daripada paras kerugian untuk ditutup kepada RM8.72, turun 2.0 sen.Indeks Perladangan merosot 24.73 mata kepada 7,735.37.

Indeks Perusahaan merosot 16.70 mata kepada 2,817.13.Indeks FBM Emas rugi 21.029 mata kepada 10,386.99 dan Indeks FBM70 turun 62.07 mata kepada 11,099.38.Indeks FBM Ace pula meningkat 40.92 mata kepada 4,283.25.

Jumlah dagangan meningkat kepada 1.695 bilion saham bernilai RM2.046 bilion daripada 1.655 bilion saham bernilai RM1.875 bilion semalam.

Di kalangan saham aktif, Tanco menokok 15.5 sen kepada 42 sen, Karambunai menokok 1.5 sen kepada 21.5 sen dan Ho Wah Genting meningkat 6.0 sen kepada 70.5 sen.

Di kalangan saham berwajaran tinggi, Public Bank meningkat 16 sen kepada RM13.24 dan Petronas Chemical, yang dijangka mengumumkan keputusan suku tahunnya lewat minggu ini, menokok 4.0 sen kepada RM6.25 dan DiGi.Com melonjak 20 sen kepada RM26.40.

Jumlah dagangan Pasaran Utama meningkat kepada 1.424 bilion saham bernilai 2.004 bilion daripada 1.359 bilion saham bernilai RM1.832 bilion pada Selasa.

Perolehan di Pasaran ACE merosot kepada 137.501 juta unit bernilai RM18.458 juta daripada 158.014 juta unit bernilai RM176.321 juta semalam.

Waran merosot kepada 119.311 juta saham bernilai RM21.768 juta daripada 122.568 juta unit bernilai RM23.570 juta sebelum ini.

- Bernama

TECHNICAL REVIEW - 23 February 2011

After the index’s impressive rebound on Monday, we had not expected it to give back all of the 8.29 pts gained that day. In fact, the index gapped down at the opening, which was a surprise.

Hence, the market remains stuck within the potential downtrend channel that we have drawn. This means there is still a possibility that the index may be creating a downtrend channel, especially since it has already created a lower high and lower low.

While watching if the index is in the midst of creating of a downtrend channel, we are sticking to our Neutral view. Do not forget that the index is now trading at below the uptrend line.

From the current level, there is still immediate support at the 1,505 pt-level, followed by the 1,500 ptpsychological level. To the upside, there is initial resistance at the 1,524-1,536-pt area.

MARKET REVIEW -23 February 2011

Volatile trading. The KLCI dropped 12.22 points to 1,513.63 points given external concerns on Libya and the contagion effect on the rest of the oil-rich Middle East region which could potentially disrupt global oil supplies and cause a spike in oil prices, and hence a dampener on global economic growth. Today’s corporate news are TNB has completed the pre-qualification tender for Malaysia’s first solar powered plant, TM and Celcom may enter a 10-year concession that will see TM re-enter the cellular business and Malaysia reported a 8% y-o-y increase in total vehicle sales for the month of Jan 2011. Overnight, Wall Street closed 178.46 points lower on the back of geopolitical
risks in the Middle East, which is likely to cap the performance of our local market today.

TECHNICAL REVIEW -22 February 2011

Yesterday was one of the most volatile sessions we can remember in recent months. The index started off with a gain of about 5 pts but dipped into negative territory not too long after and even lost as much as 12.02 pts at one point during the day. The market found support at the previous major recent-low of 1,505 pts, and then started to bounce back, eventually ending with a 8.29-pt gain.

Using the potential downtrend channel as guidance, yesterday’s strong push off the 1,505 pt-level was capped right below the downtrend line of the potential channel. Hence, there is still a possibility that the index may create a downtrend channel. We stick to our Neutral view towards the near- termmarket for now.

The retracement that started since the beginning of the year from the historic high has not harmed the market’s mid-term uptrend. Hence, the mid-term technical outlook of the FBM KLCI remains firmly bullish.

From the current level, there is still an immediate support at the 1,505 pt-level, followed by the 1,500 pt-psychological level. To the upside, there is initial resistance at the 1,524-1,536-pt area.

MARKET REVIEW - 22 February 2011

Choppy trading. The underlying sentiment on regional markets continued to be cautious due to external geopolitical concerns, with the FBM KLCI paring its losses in the morning session following Maybank's strong 1HFY11 results. Other notable results released were that of KFC Holdings, which reported a 39% y-o-y rise in net profit for its 2Q supported by its network expansion and aggressive marketing programs. AMMB will acquire a 100% stake in AmIslamic Bank for RM1.3bn in an internal restructuring. With the unsettling external developments spooking investors, attention has naturally gravitated towards the domestic reporting season, which is expected to see a tide of big caps releasing their numbers over the next few days, including CIMB, AirAsia and Axiata Group. Pending any major negative surprise on the results front, the downside risk on the local bourse should be mitigated. Wall Street was closed yesterday for a national holiday.

TECHNICAL REVIEW -21 February 2011

With the index losing about 47 pts on the 9th, 10th and 11th of Feb, last Friday’s 9-pt gain may seem encouraging, but it could just be a technical rebound from the nearly 50 pts of losses recorded previously. Even though the FBM KLCI has now returned back above the previous recent low of 1,505 pt-level in a convincing manner, we still cannot tell if the index has bottomed out.

Last week, we drew a potential downtrend channel which we hope could help us in reading the nearterm market direction. Having created a lower high last week, there is a possibility that the index may start creating a downtrend channel and eventually retrace to the next key low of 1,474 pts. Last Friday’s rebound emerged within our potential downtrend channel and did not clearly signal the end of the retracement starting at the historic high. Also, do not forget that the index has violated the strong uptrend line.

We stick to our Neutral view towards the near-term market for now. The retracement that started since the beginning of the year from the historic high has not harmed the market’s mid-term uptrend. Hence, the mid-term technical outlook of the FBM KLCI remains firmly bullish.

From the current level, there is still an immediate support at the 1,505 pt-level, followed by the 1,500 pt-psychological level. To the upside, we continue to look for initial resistance at the 1,524-1,536-pt area.

MARKET REVIEW - 21 February 2011

Closed higher. The FBM KLCI was up 9.0 points to close at 1,517.56. The growth of the Malaysian economy in 2010 was higher than official expectations as the economy expanded by 7.2% compared with the official projection of 7.0% and compared to a contraction of 1.7% in 2009. India expects to buy more palm oil from Malaysia in 2011 given the current shortage of edible oils in the country. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s palm oil export to India had dropped to 1.16m tonnes in 2010 compared with 1.35m tonnes in 2009. UMW Toyota Motor is anticipating Malaysia’s car sales to exceed 90k units this year to maintain its market share at 15%. Finally, both the US markets and crude oil price closed higher on Friday. Crude oil price was up USD0.87 to close at USD89.71/barrel.

Bursa diunjur tinggi minggu ini

KUALA LUMPUR 20 Feb. - Bursa tempatan dijangka diniagakan tinggi minggu ini, disokong oleh angka pertumbuhan ekonomi yang menggalakkan tahun lepas, selain sentimen positif dalam pasaran Asia, kata penganalisis.

Berikutan ketegangan semasa di Timur Tengah, mereka berkata, pelabur akan melihat Asia sebagai enjin pertumbuhan utama dunia.

"Pasaran dijangka lebih berdaya tahan dengan potensi peningkatan dan melangkau ke paras 1,550 mata dalam tempoh terdekat, kata Ketua Penyelidikan Runcit Affin Investment Bank, Dr. Nazri Khan kepada Bernama.

Pasaran ditutup tinggi minggu ini kepada 1,517.56.

"Meskipun kebimbangan mengenai inflasi semakin meningkat, kami masih melihat tema - Asia sebagai enjin pertumbuhan utama dunia - secara umumnya kukuh dalam tempoh sederhana," katanya.

Pada Jumaat, Bank Negara Malaysia mengumumkan Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) Malaysia untuk tahun lepas berkembang 7.2 peratus berbanding penguncupan 1.7 peratus pada 2009 manakala pertumbuhan suku keempat menyederhana kepada 4.8 peratus berbanding 5.3 peratus pada suku ketiga.

Ia merupakan kadar pertumbuhan tahunan terpantas sejak 2000, yang tidak ragu-ragu lagi akan menggalakkan pelabur mengumpul saham.

"Kami yakin pelabur institusi sudah mula membeli, dengan banyak saham mencatat keputusan pendapatan yang positif bagi tempoh suku keempat," katanya.

Bayangan bahawa kadar faedah akan dinaikkan dan kitaran pelaburan yang meningkat, dilihat sebagai pemangkin asas yang penting dalam jangka terdekat.

"Sudah ada tanda-tanda yang menunjukkan pelaburan yang semakin rancak dan penggabungan korporat sudah bermula dengan pelaburan langsung asing dan penggabungan dan pengambilalihan masing-masing meningkat lebih 400 peratus dan 300 peratus pada 2010 - kadar pertumbuhan paling pantas di Asia Pasifik," katanya.

Pada Jumaat, FBM KLCI meningkat mengatasi paras psikologi 1,500 mata, hasil daripada keuntungan ketara dalam kebanyakan syarikat berkaitan indeks.

Mengikut asas mingguan, FBM KLCI meningkat 23.04 mata kepada 1,517.56 berbanding 1,494.52.

Indeks Emas meningkat 155.77 kepada 10,508.58 daripada 10,352.81 dan Indeks FBM70 Index menokok 239.60 mata kepada 11,442.27 berbanding 11,202.67, namun Indeks FBM Ace susut 50.57 mata kepada 4,455.59 berbanding 4,506.16.

Indeks Kewangan meningkat 201.53 mata kepada 13,720.64 daripada 13,519.11, Indeks Perusahaan menokok 21.67 mata kepada 2,857.56 daripada 2,835.89 manakala Indeks Perladangan menambah 70.52 mata kepada 7,880.01 berbanding 7,809.49.

Jumlah dagangan bagi minggu yang baru berakhir susut kepada 7.09 bilion saham bernilai RM7.637 bilion berbanding 12.51 bilion saham bernilai RM13.55 bilion pada minggu dagangan yang pendek minggu lalu.

Jumlah dagangan di pasaran utama berkurangan kepada 1.238 bilion saham bernilai RM441.856 juta berbanding 9.99 bilion saham bernilai RM13.08.

Jumlah dagangan di Pasaran ACE susut kepada 29.105 juta saham bernilai RM5.434 juta berbanding 1.582 bilion saham bernilai RM235.71 juta.

Waran susut kepada 104.507 juta unit bernilai RM19.004 juta berbanding 845.51 juta unit bernilai RM213.92 juta. - BERNAMA