TECHNICAL REVIEW - 11February 2011

Yesterday’s 32.08-pt slide has more or less disconfirmed the “non-classical Hammer” bullish candlestick reversal signal. As we mentioned several times before, another strong push to the upside is what we need to feel more comfortable that the previous downtrend has decisively shifted. This is because it was not a classical “Hammer” constructed on 26 Jan 2010 as the day’s rebound failed to push the index into positive territory but had instead ended the day with 6.43-pt loss. As such, it was not a very strong reversal signal.

Yesterday we saw the market start to retrace from the bottom of the uptrend line. What would worry the bulls is that the index eked out below the bottom of the “non-classical Hammer” or the 1,505 pt-level. We have said before that the slightly more than 20-pt rebound that occurred on the 26th of last month implied an obvious attempt at bottoming out. Then, during last Monday’s session, despite gapping down at the opening, the FBM KLCI exhibited a strong conviction to stay at above the bottom of the “non classical Hammer”, or the 1,505 pt-level. Since the index closed slightly below the 1,505 pt-level yesterday, a further drop from the current level would definitely make a big dent on market sentiment. A breakdown at the 1,505 pt-level would also be considered a violation of the key recent-low.

We shall see if the FBM KLCI can close back above the 1,505 pt-level soon. Holding up above the 1,505 pt-level would still see the market possibly creating a sideways trend at above the 1,505 pt-level. If not, a convincing breakdown at 1,505 might eventually pull down the index to the 1,474 pt-level, which is the next strong support we can detect.

Undoubtedly, the index - which is now trading at below the uptrend line - is looking weak in the near-term. Should the 1,505 pt-level be violated too, it will write off the possibility of building a sideways trend. If that happens, we will shift our near-term view to neutral.

Immediate support lies at the 1,500 psychological mark, followed by the 1,495 pt-level and the 1,474 pt-level. To the upside, there is immediate resistance at the 1,505 pt-level, followed by the 1,524-1,536-pt area.

MARKET REVIEW - 11February 2011

Sharply lower. The FBM KLCI plunged 32.08 pts to close at 1,503.99 on extended losses in finance counters and blue chips. Dayang has been awarded a contract by Petronas Carigali SB to provide topside structural maintenance services for about RM802m, the major shareholders of MTD Capital Bhd have revised their offer price higher from RM9.50 to RM11.00 cash per share to take over the company while Integrax Bhd is selling its entire 70.31% stake in its Indonesian subsidiary, PT Indoexchange Tbk to Equatorex SB, for RM9.38m. According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, Malaysian CPO production fell 14.18% m-o-m to 1.057m tonnes in January while Malaysia’s industrial production index rose 4.2% y-o-y in December 2010. Finally, the US markets closed mixed while crude oil price was marginally unchanged, up only by USD0.02 to USD86.73/barrel.

TECHNICAL REVIEW - 10 February 2011

As represented by the three latest black candles in the above daily chart, the index has been consolidating over the last three trading days after violating the short-term downtrend line. Thus far, the market action is still in line with our expectation following the creation of the “non-classical Hammer”. Another strong push to the upside is what we need to feel more comfortable that the previous downtrend has decisively shifted.

Anyhow, we think the market has exhibited some signs of bottoming out. Firstly, on 26 Jan 2010, the index fell by slightly more than 20 pts at one point during trading but eventually recouped more than 50% of the day’s losses and ended with only a 6.43-pt loss. As a result, the “non classical Hammer” was created. Secondly, on the second last trading day before the Chinese New Year holidays began, the FBM KLCI gapped down by 14.22 pts at the opening but successfully recouped nearly all its earlier losses on the day itself. This rebound had emerged near the bottom of the “non-classical Hammer”. Thirdly, in a subsequent trading session last Monday, the index experienced followthrough buying and ended higher by nearly 12 pts. Last but not least, the benchmark is now in the midst of violating the short-term downtrend line.

We, therefore, maintain our bullish view. We believe the few above-mentioned technical developments that happened two weeks ago have significantly reduced the risk of a further retracement. To the downside, there is an immediate support at the 1,505 pt-level, followed by the 1,500-pt psychological mark. To the upside, we are still eyeing the 1,532 pt-level as the initial
resistance, followed by the 1,558 to 1,567-pt downside gap.

MARKET REVIEW - 10 February 2011

Profit-taking dominates. The FBM KLCI lost 3.48 points to close at 1536.07 points in tandem with weaker regional bourses, which reacted to China's 25-basis point rate hike. Overnight, the Dow managed to close just 6.74 points higher but Europe’s markets were weaker. Today’s news headlines are Multi-Purpose Holdings (MPHB) enters into an MOU for the acquisition of the remaining 49% equity stake in Magnum Holdings it does not own and RM674.7m of RCULS for RM1637.2m via new MPHB shares and/or cash, MRCB reported RM41.5m in net profit for 4QFY10, while Coastal Contract secures contracts for seven offshore support vessels, three tugboats and two oil barges for a total of RM268m. The local bourse could continue to drift lower as profittaking continues to dominate. Immediate support is seen at 1,505 pts.

NOTA DARI LT INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (M) SDN BHD

Saham mewah rangsang Bursa rendah

KUALA LUMPUR 9 Feb - Kebanyakan harga saham di Bursa Malaysia ditutup lebih rendah hari ini berikutan kerugian berterusan saham berwajaran tinggi, kata para peniaga. FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) turun 3.48 mata kepada 1,536.07 selepas dibuka meningkat 2.08 mata kepada 1,541.63.

Para peniaga berkata sentimen bertukar kepada berhati-hati di tengah-tengah tersebar berita mengenai peningkatan kadar faedah terbaharu China.

Mereka berkata pasaran tempatan turut dipengaruhi kemerosotan di dalam pasaran serantau.

Bagaimana pun, kenaikan yang dialami kaunter telekomunikasi seperti Axiata dan Maxis telah mengurangkan penurunan indeks.

Indeks Kewangan turun 70.03 mata kepada 13,958.97, Indeks Perusahaan turun 4.64 mata kepada 2,883.73 dan Indeks Perladangan turun 52.62 mata kepada 8,039.31.

Indeks FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas turun 18.58 mata kepada 10,621.32, Indeks FTSE Bursa Malaysia Ace turun 72.69 mata kepada 4,591.63 dan Indeks FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mid 70 merosot 4.229 mata kepada 11,445.58.

Jumlah dagangan turun kepada 2.196 bilion saham bernilai RM2.660 bilion daripada 3.178 bilion saham bernilai RM2.736 bilion semalam.

Kaunter rugi mengatasi kaunter untung sebanyak 493 kepada 347 manakala 286 kaunter tidak berubah, 260 tidak diniagakan dan 30 yang lain digantung.

Bagi saham aktif, Karambunai Corp turun 0.5 sen kepada 25.5 sen, Ho Wah Genting menokok 8.0 sen kepada 85.5 sen dan CBS Technology menokok 5.5 sen kepada 45 sen manakala Tanco Holdings rugi 1.0 sen kepada 40 sen.

Antara saham berwajaran tinggi, Maybank tidak berubah pada harga RM8.78, CIMB Group Holdings turun 2.0 sen kepada RM8.37, Axiata meningkat 10 sen kepada RM5.13 dan Maxis menokok 7.0 sen kepada RM5.46 dengan Genting rugi 34 sen kepada RM10.40.

Jumlah dagangan di pasaran utama merosot kepada 1.89 bilion saham bernilai RM2.59 bilion daripada 2.59 bilion saham bernilai RM2.62 bilion semalam. Waran turun kepada 160.33 juta unit bernilai RM42.58 juta daripada 170.61 juta unit bernilai RM43.69 juta sebelum ini.

Perolehan di Pasaran ACE juga turun kepada 124.64 juta saham bernilai RM17.87 juta daripada 401.96 juta saham bernilai RM63.85 juta semalam.

- Bernama

TECHNICAL REVIEW - 9 February 2011

The RM3,750 / tonne level has been our major talking point for the last few months. This is because whether or not CPO price breaks and sustains above this level will determine its near-term outlook. Since two years ago, after CPO prices tumbled sharply in 1Q08, there have been four major failed rebound attempts to go back and hold above the RM3,750 / tonne level in the subsequent 4 months. Interestingly, the market experienced its fifth failed breakout attempt at the RM3,750 / tonne level last month.

The market is now trying to decisively take away this formidable RM3,750 / tonne level for the sixth time since 2008. This time, unlike all the previous failed attempts, it looks like the market has better odds. This is because it has exhibited strong conviction of not violating the recent low of RM3,610 / tonne level on 26 Jan. As a result, a mini “Double Bottom” was constructed and this
reversal signal also appears right above the uptrend line extending from the major breakout point situated at the RM2,800 / tonne level.

As the market continues to trend higher along the uptrend line, coupled with the formation of the mini “Double Bottom”, we maintain our bullish view towards the near-term CPO prices.

If the RM3,750 / tonne level is decisively violated, immediate resistance lies at the RM3,905 / tonne level, followed by the RM4,000 / tonne level. To the downside, immediate support is seen at the RM3,610 / tonne level, followed by RM3,471 / tonne.

MARKET REVIEW - 9 February 2011

Better days ahead. The FBM KLCI closed 3.95 points higher to 1,539.55 points with buying interest seen in telecommunication stocks and selected key blue chip heavyweights. Trading volume remained brisk at a tad above the 3bn shares mark. Wall Street sustained its positive uptrend - the longest since July 2010 – which helped to lift sentiment on our markets post CNY. Today’s corporate news include Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB) emerging as a substantial shareholder of Naim Holdings after acquiring a 5% stake for RM3.40/share from Naim’s managing director, the Government may bring forward the liberalization of the country’s automotive industry earlier than the scheduled 2020 deadline, United Overseas Australia Ltd (UOA) has proposed to list its development arm on Bursa Malaysia and PJI Holdings Bhd has secured a RM55.9m construction contract from IJM Bhd. Wall Street advanced by 71.5 points, backed by positive economic news, including a decline in unemployment rates.A

NOTA DARI LT INTERNATIONAL FUTURES(M) SDN BHD

TECHNICAL REVIEW - 8 February 2011

The index picked up another 3.78 pts yesterday. Although strong upside momentum did not emerge yesterday – which is a signal we need to further confirm the violation of the short-term downtrend line - the index was at least moving in the right direction after creating the “non-classical Hammer”.

Anyhow, the market’s movements over the last three trading days have significantly reduced the risk of a further downside retracement. The index’s retracement from its historic high could have ended after it constructed the “non-classical Hammer”. Signs of the market bottoming could be analyzed from different angles. Firstly, on 26 Jan 2010, the index fell by slightly more than 20 pts at one point during trading but eventually recouped more than 50% of the day’s losses and ended with only a 6.43-pt loss. As a result, the “non classical Hammer” was created. Secondly, on the second last trading day before the Chinese New Year holidays began, the FBM KLCI gapped down by 14.22 pts at the opening but successfully recouped nearly all its earlier losses on the day itself. This rebound emerged near the bottom of the “non-classical Hammer”. Thirdly, in a subsequent trading session last Monday, the index experienced follow-through buying and ended higher by almost 12 pts. Last but not least, the index is now in the midst of violating the short-term downtrend line.

We, therefore, maintain our bullish view. To the downside, continue there is immediate support at the 1,505 pt-level, followed by the 1,500-pt psychological mark. To the upside, we are still eyeing the 1,532 pt-level as the initial resistance, followed by the 1,558 to 1,567-pt downside gap.

MARKET REVIEW - 8 February 2011

Hopping good start to the bunny year. The FBM KLCI closed just off its intraday low, adding nearly 4 points to finish at 1535.60. Trading volume was brisk at over 3m shares as investors returned from the Chinese New Year holidays to snap up blue chips. The stronger close on the US market last week also helped shore up sentiment, with attention shifting to the current reporting season, which mitigated concerns on the political turmoil in Egypt and Tunisia. Today’s local headlines are: i) Tenaga looking to source its coal from South Africe; ii) Hartalega reported a 31% y-o-y rise in pre-tax profit; and iii) the Ringgit rose to a new 13-year high. We expect the market to be supported by thematic plays, with big caps likely to remain the flavour in the mediumterm. The stronger close on the Dow last night on news of takeovers will also bolster regional sentiment today.

Kaunter perladangan rangsang Bursa teguh

KUALA LUMPUR 7 Feb - Harga saham di Bursa Malaysia ditutup lebih tinggi hari ini didahului oleh kaunter berkaitan perladangan di celah-celah harga minyak sawit mentah (MSM) yang kukuh, kata peniaga.

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI naik 3.78 mata untuk ditutup 1,535.60. Ia dibuka 7.42 mata lebih tinggi pada 1,539.24 pagi ini.Sepanjang hari ini, indeks itu bergerak antara 1,533.75 dan 1.541.43.

Di Bursa Malaysia, Indeks Kewangan naik 41.09 mata kepada 14,012.23 dan Indeks Perladangan menokok 122.19 mata kepada 8,079.69.Indeks Perusahaan bagaimanapun menyusut 2.07 mata kepada 2,878.20.

Indeks Emas FTSE Bursa Malaysia naik 30.93 mata pada 10,601.25, Indeks ACE FTSE Bursa Malaysia naik 249.90 kepada 4,664.19 dan Indeks Mid 70 FTSE Bursa Malaysia bertambah 24.73 mata kepada 11,379.69.

Jumlah dagangan meningkat kepada 3.24 bilion saham bernilai RM2.62 bilion daripada 1.53 bilion saham bernilai RM1.7 bilion yang dicatatkan Rabu lepas.

Kaunter rugi mengatasi untung dengan 567 berbanding 287 kaunter sementara 240 kaunter tidak berubah.

MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd dalam nota penyelidikannya berkataBursa Malaysia mungkin mendapat keuntungan daripada permintaan tertunggak minggu ini selepas cuti panjang Tahun Baru Cina.

Pendahulu jumlah dagangan Iris Corporation naik 6.5 sen kepada 23.5 sen, Karambunai Corp meningkat empat sen kepada 26.5 sen dan Talam Corporation setengah sen lebih tinggi pada 11 sen.

Di kalangan saham berwajaran tinggi, Maybank naik tujuh sen kepada RM8.80, CIMB naik satu sen kepada RM8.39 dan Petronas Chemicals mencatatkan 1.5 sen lebih tinggi pada RM6.30.

Jumlah dagangan di Pasaran Utama meningkat kepada 2.43 bilion saham bernilai RM2.5 bilion daripada 1.36 bilion saham bernilai RM1.67 bilion yang dicatatkan Rabu lepas.

Warant meningkat kepada 118.3 juta unit bernilai RM29.51 juta daripada 86.65 juta unit bernilai RM22.17 juta sebelum ini.Perolehan dagangan di pasaran ACE menokok kepada 661.57 juta saham bernilai RM92.67 juta daripada 78.18 juta saham bernilai RM9.25 juta Rabu lepas.-Bernama

TECHNICAL REVIEW - 7 February 2011

Over the last two sessions, the market exhibited an obvious intention to stay above the “non-classical Hammer”. On the second last trading day before the Chinese New Year holidays began, the FBM KLCI gapped down by 14.22 pts at the opening but successfully recouped nearly all the losses on the day itself. This rebound emerged near the bottom of the “non-classical Hammer”. In a subsequent trading session last Monday, the index experienced follow-through buying and ended higher by almost 12 pts.

It seems like the index is violating the short-term downtrend line. We have mentioned before that the “non-classical Hammer” has yet to be confirmed and a breakout from the downtrend line would be enough to confirm the bullish reversal pattern. We just need another round of strong upside momentum to be sure of the bullish signal.

The market actions over the last two trading days have significantly reduced the risk of further downward retracement. Therefore, we maintain our bullish view.

To the downside, look for immediate support at the 1,505 pt-level, followed by the 1,500-pt psychological mark. To the upside, we are still eyeing the 1,532 pt-level as the initial resistance, followed by the 1,558 to 1,567-pt downside gap.

MARKET REVIEW - 7 February 2011

Higher close. The FBM KLCI jumped 11.88 points to close at 1,531.82 on Wednesday’s half-day trading session ahead of the Chinese lunar new year holidays. The gains were largely contributed by Genting, which boosted the benchmark index. Malaysia’s exports for December 2010 grew 4.6% y-o-y. Latexx Partners Bhd, which received a takeover offer from Navis Asia VI Management Co Ltd early last week, confirmed that the latter has sufficient resources to carry out the acquisition. Meanwhile, RAM downgrades MAA Holdings’ RM200m commercial papers/mediumterm notes (CP/MTN) program (2007/2014) ratings on negative outlook. Iran’s oil minister said there would be no need for an emergency Opec meeting even if crude oil price hits USD120/barrel since the USD had depreciated substantially. Finally, the US markets finished higher but crude oil lost USD1.51 to end at USD89.03/barrel.